So perhaps it would be a good idea to briefly review the real estate activity in East Gwillimbury during 2023. (Note that unless otherwise specified, all numbers are from TRREB’s MLS data.)             

Sales in EG dropped about 8.2% to 468 (versus 510 in 2022) and the $1.327M average sale price was about 6.7% lower than 2022’s $1.422M. Taken at face value, there’s no question that these year-over-year results are disappointing. But if we dig a little deeper, some interesting things come to light.                        

First of all, at one time EG was largely made up of rural or fairly low-density urban property types, generally with detached homes. However, the recent explosion of subdivision development has led to many more semi-detached and townhomes being part of the resale market. Since these are generally lower-priced properties, if there are more of them making up the sales numbers the overall average price will be slightly lower. 

Indeed we see that non-detached properties accounted for 25% of the activity in 2023 versus only 20% the year before. Granted this is not a huge difference, but it does move the numbers slightly: the average sale price of a detached home in EG was $1.437M, a drop of only 5.8% from 2022. Still a drop, but slightly less of one.                   

The point is, in a town like EG, where the amount and types of housing available are changing fairly significantly, the real estate results can be influenced by factors other than complex socio- economic conditions. Sometimes it’s just basic math.   

Another thing to consider is what happened in 2022. As has been widely documented, there was a very distinct and quite sharp downward reset beginning in April 2022, when the effects of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes drastically reduced people’s ability to borrow mortgage money. As a result, the 2022 market is typically broken into 2 parts - the still frenzied, super hot January, February, and March, and the much slower placed perhaps more rational Last 9 months.               

If we then evaluate the 2023 results, not against the entire 2022, but with the “outlier-2022 Q1” removed, we can make a more meaningful post-reset apples-to-apples comparison: 2023’s average sale price was up a slight 0.56% over the last 9 months of 2022 on slightly higher activity of an average of 39 sales per month (versus 35).                  

Why does this matter? Well, it was not realistic that the strong upward volume and pricing seen from late 2019 through early 2023 was sustainable indefinitely. So once the reset occurred in 2022, the market took the rest of 2022 and most of 2023 to get over its super hot activity hangover and get used to the new environment. And now that things have calmed down, it seems to have settled back into a more manageable pace that is once again moving in the right direction. And let’s not forget, 2023’s average sale price was the 2nd highest ever in EG. Down from the year before, but still historically strong.                  

And this is good news for the vast majority of local homeowners going forward. Despite the ups and downs of the market, East Gwillimbury continues to be a place people want to live. So whether you are staying put and quietly enjoying the benefits of this demand, or you have decided that it’s time to put your house on the market, things are generally looking good. 

Lee Lander is the Owner & Broker of Record of Lander Realty Inc. and has lived in East Gwillimbury for over 25 years. She’s become the go-to local market expert: nobody knows EG Real Estate like Lee because nobody does as much business in EG as Lee does. Lee@LeeLander.com.